Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker has a mere one percent lead with fifteen percent over real estate mogul and reality television star Donald Trump and the rest of the Republican field in Michigan according to a poll released Tuesday, June 30, by Public Policy Polling. Trump is in a three-way tie at fourteen percent with physician and Detroit native Ben Carson and former Florida Governor John Ellis “Jeb” Bush. The rest of the Republican field has support in the single digits with Florida Senator Marco Rubio coming in closest at nine percent.
Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling, said in a statement “Donald Trump’s in the top tier of the Republican field for a second consecutive week in our polling. Time will tell how long the Trump Bump lasts, but it’s at least two weeks at this point.”
The same survey found former First Lady and Secretary of State Hillary Clinton with a commanding lead over the Democratic field at fifty-seven percent. Bernie Sanders came in second, far behind Clinton at twenty-five percent. The remaining Democratic contenders fell even farther behind with support in the single digits.
The poll also found that Clinton would defeat any of the Republican candidates in Michigan by margins of three to ten percent. Kentucky Senator Rand Paul came in closest at three percent, while Trump and Texas Senator Raphael “Ted” Cruz would both lose to Clinton by ten percent.
This is the fourth poll since Trump declared his candidacy in which he has ranked second. As reported by The Hill last week, Trump came in second behind Bush in two polls of New Hampshire Republicans and one poll of Republicans nationwide. New Hampshire voters thought Trump was the Republican candidate best able to handle the economy.
Very conservative voters form the core of Trump’s support in Michigan. From them, Trump receives eighteen percent, behind only Walker with twenty-three percent. Carson is right behind Trump with seventeen percent among very conservative voters. In contrast, Bush comes in sixth with the right wing of his party with only six percent saying they would vote for him in the primary.
Somewhat conservative voters also contribute to Trump’s second place showing. Ten percent of those in the center of his party said they would support the billionaire, placing him fourth behind Bush at twenty-one percent, Walker at fifteen percent, and Carson at thirteen percent among this segment of the Republican electorate.
Trump’s second places in the polls come despite very high disapproval ratings. The Public Policy Polling poll found that forty-four percent of Michigan Republicans surveyed have a negative perception of him to forty-four percent having a negative view of him for a net three percent unfavorablity rating. This finding mirrors that of the second New Hampshire poll cited by The Hill, which was conducted by CCN and WMUR. It found forty-eight percent of Republicans in the Granite State had a negative view of the real estate tycoon while only thirty-eight percent had a positive opinion of him, a net unfavorability rating of ten percent.
Trump’s unfavorability ratings have nothing on Chris Christie’s. The New Jersey Governor, who declared his candidacy the same day the Michigan poll was released, elicits negative views from fifty-four percent of those surveyed to only twenty-five percent with a positive opinion. Dislike of Christie is spread across the ideological spectrum, with very conservative, somewhat conservative, and moderate voters all having a dim view of him.
Christie enters the presidential contest at the middle of the Republican pack in Michigan, tied for seventh place with Cruz in Michigan at five percent, behind Walker, Trump, Carson, Bush, Rubio, and former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee, who has eight percent support. Trailing the New Jersey Governor are Rand Paul at four percent, Ohio Governor John Kasich and former Hewlett-Packard executive Carly Fiorina at three percent, Rick Santorum at two percent, Lindsey Graham and Rick Perry at one percent, and Bobby Jindal and George Pataki with less than one percent.
The pack for the Democratic nomination consists of former Rhode Island Governor Lincoln Chafee, two percent for former Virginia Senator Jim Webb, and one percent for Maryland Governor Martin O’Malley. All of them are far behind Clinton and Sanders.
The poll was conducted during June 25 through June 28. It surveyed 1,072 registered voters, including 465 Republican primary voters and 431 Democratic primary voters.