In the first two post Republican primary debate polls, Business mogul Donald Trump has not only solidified his front-runner status, he has run away from all his competition in the large GOP field. Trump has been winning in the polls for nearly six years now, no longer a fade; he is giving establishment candidates a run for their money. Former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush who used to be the frontrunner for the GOP now sits distant second and third. Trump’s leads are double his next competitor. The two polls are the Fox News poll released on Sunday, Aug. 16, 2015 and the second a CNN/ORC poll released on Monday, Aug. 17 giving Trump gains and clear leads. Despite Trumps polls numbers, bookmakers are putting the bets and money on Bush as the odds on favorite to capture still the Republican nomination.
In the Fox News poll, Trump tops the large field with any establishment candidates gaining steam. Trump has 25 percent support from Republican and Republican leaning independents. In second is another outsider retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson with 12 percent support, while Texas Sen. Ted Cruz is third with 10 percent. Bush is fourth place 9 percent support. Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee and Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker tie with 6 percent each taking the fifth and six places. The rest of the top ten includes former Hewlett Packard CEO Carly Fiorina at 5 percent; Ohio Gov. John Kasich, and Florida Sen. Marco Rubio are tied with 4 percent support each. I the tenth spot is another tie with New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie and Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul both having three percent support.
In the CNN/ORC poll, Trump topped the poll gaining 24 percent of support of Republican voters. In a distant second is Bush with only 11 percent, following in third is Carson who has 9 percent support. Rounding out the top five is a tie with Rubio and Walker both with eight percent. Paul has 6 percent support, while Cruz, Fiorina and Kasich all tie with 5 percent support each. In the tenth spot is Huckabee with four percent.
Bush sees the greatest losses in the polls he used to top the Fox News poll with 15 percent support in the last poll in July. Bush also was only behind Trump by three percent in the last CNN poll released in the end of July. Bush was the poll leader from the time 2012 GOP nominee Mitt Romney announced he will not run again until Trump came on the scene. Walker also lost 3 points in the Fox poll, while Rubio lost one percentage point.
Trump is the polls’ greatest gainer he saw his CNN poll number rise 6 points, Carson also gained 5 points in the poll. Since Trump announced his candidacy, he has gained steam. Since mid-July, he has led the GOP field in nine out of 13 polls conducted, and since the end of July, he won every poll in the early primary states of Iowa and New Hampshire.
Trump has obviously gained steam in the post-debate period, his controversy with Fox News moderator Megyn Kelly as blip on the minds of Republican and Republican leaning voters. Trump also leads the field in the polls for the early nominating states of Iowa and New Hampshire. Kasich and Fiorina also have benefitted from the performance in the undercard debate, Fiorina was the winner of the debate, and gained 4 points in the CNN poll.
The CNN poll also looked at favorable and unfavorable ratings. Bush has lost the most in both his poll numbers and favorability ratings. Bush has a 56 percent unfavorable rating among all voters and 42 percent from Republican voters. In July those numbers were much lower, 43 percent overall and 34 percent by Republicans.
Kasich and Fiorina’s favorable numbers are the best, because they are mostly unknown on the national stage. Fiorina has a 45 percent favorable rating with only an 11 percent negative rating, with 43 percent undecided. Kasich has a 32 percent favorable rating and 20 percent unfavorable, while 49 percent remain undecided.
Trump has seen a rise in his favorable numbers, especially among his loyal supporters, 98 percent of whom view him favorably. Trump is having a difficult time convincing all Republicans 58 percent believe “the party would have a better chance to win in 2016 with someone else at the top of the ticket.”
Of all the candidates, Republicans trust him the most on the important issues, the economy, illegal immigration and handling ISIS, however, Conservative Republicans trust him more than moderates. Trump also has a gender gap because his recent comments to public female figures and about women in general, resulted in more men supporting him than women.
Former Iowa Republican Party political director Craig Robinson believes Trump can win the nomination. Robinson commented to the press, “Can he win? He sure can win. He’s running roughshod over the rest of this field because the other candidates have allowed him to. This is a high stakes poker game and you have a guy playing aggressively, owning the table and dictating how everyone else moves.”
Bets however, are not in Trump’s favor according the Irish betting site Paddy Power, Bush is the odds on favorite to win the nomination, and Trump does not even come close coming in at only third. Bush has 6-4 odds, followed by Walker with 4-1. Trump has 9-2 odds, Rubio is fourth with 7-1 and in fifth place is Kasich with 12-1. Although Bush is the odds on favorite to capture the nomination, he does fare well against Democratic frontrunner Hillary Clinton, email scandal and all. Bush’s odds to win the presidency are 10-3, followed by Trump with 10-1 and third is Rubio with 12-1.
Even with Trump’s polls numbers consistently leading, it is still early in the campaign. Historically the frontrunner at this point has not captured the nomination, and moderates are favored more than conservative Republicans like Trump are, because the independent voter is the key to winning the White House.