Is his lead among Republican voters consistent with most GOP voter views?
It’s very early and a lot can change but real estate magnate and financial deal maker Donald Trump leads all the major polls in the race for the Republican nomination for president. The most recent poll results released on Thursday, the Quinnipiac University poll based on polling during the week ending on July 28, has Trump the favorite of 20 percent of Republican voters. That makes him the clear leader among the numerous candidates. Second place in the Quinnipiac poll was taken by Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker with 13 percent. Former Florida Governor Jeb Bush followed with 10 percent.
In another poll national poll by Rasmussen Reports taken during the same week of the latest Quinnipiac poll, Trump’s lead was larger. In the Rasmussen poll Trump came in with 26%. Scott was second with 14% and Bush third with 10%.
In a CNN/ORC poll where polling was concluded on July 25, Trump was in the lead for the Republican nomination with 18%. Bush was second in that poll at 15% and Walker was third at 10%.
Polls by ABC/Washington Post, Public Policy Polling and Fox News taken up to two weeks earlier than the Quinnipiac and Rasmussen polls show similar results with Trump in the lead followed by Walker and then Bush.
How does all this popularity among Republican voters square with Trump’s brief pronouncements on issues? PBS.org presents a list of 10 issues on which Trump has voiced an opinion.
In brief, Trump is for more cuts in federal government spending, but he isn’t for cutting Social Security or Medicare. He is for repealing and replacing Obamacare and while not being specific he wrote that he supports a health care system that would be similar to the Canadian model. He believes climate change is a hoax. He believes in limits to abortion and that marriage should be defined by state laws. He is for lower personal income tax rates and elimination of corporate taxes and has proposed a one-time 14.25 percent tax on wealthy Americans. He is against the Iran nuclear deal and supports sending some combat troops to fight the Islamic State.
As you can see this is a mixed bag. Budget cuts and decreased taxes can certainly get Republican voter hearts beating. Protecting Social Security and Medicare is of course popular with a majority of voters, both Republican and Democrat, but if you are going to cut taxes where would the money come from to protect these programs? And how would national health care modeled on Canada’s single payer system go over with GOP anti government voters? A one-time tax on wealthy Americans is unlikely to be popular among many wealthy GOP supporters.
Does Trump have staying power? Most serious pundits think not. Republican strategist John Feehery expects Trump’s numbers to fall as he gets more scrutiny. Reuters.com quotes Feehery. “The curtain has not been pulled back yet. In time, people will see Trump is not who they want to have as a nominee. But that’s going to take awhile.” NPR reports veteran political operatives as saying it will take more than getting headlines with outspoken outbursts. He will have to survive the debates and withstand more scrutiny into his background and business deals.
But the guy is full of surprises. He predicted that he would win the Hispanic vote even after he made unfavorable remarks about Mexican immigrants. And guess what, a report on a National poll between July 20-21 has him with a 34% favorability rating among Hispanics.
And guess whom Trump is cozying up to. Just two days ago, Trump says he’d appoint Sarah Palin to a cabinet post if he were to become president. That would make a pair popular with many Republicans primary voters. A Public Policy Polling poll last January indicated that Palin had a 70 percent favorability rating among Republican primary voters.