Scattered thunderstorms brought much needed rainfall and strong winds to the Tri-State on Tuesday afternoon. In Dayton, an EF1 tornado with winds to 105 mph was confirmed at a shopping center flipping over several cars and injuring two people. The tornado was a great example of a quick “spin-up” that lasted less than two minutes and is nearly impossible to pick up via weather radar. This was a good reminder to keep a watchful eye to the sky whenever severe thunderstorms are moving into the area.
[ Storm survey info: http://www.erh.noaa.gov/iln/events/20150526/beavercreek.php ]
The Storm Prediction Center has flagged most of Ohio under a slight risk for severe weather once again today. A weak cool front will push in from the northwest and wash out later this afternoon. This will likely spark several broken lines of thunderstorms. With plenty of humidity and daytime highs reaching the middle 80s, moderate instability is forecast to develop. In addition, low end wind shear will be present to help organize the storms for a severe threat. The main risk today will once again be strong wind gusts but some isolated hail is possible in any stronger cells.
The timing for storms will be between 4 p.m. and 10 p.m. but with the storms being scattered in nature (multiple broken line segments) not everyone will necessarily get hit. Storms will fade later this evening towards midnight as instability drops off and the cool front falls apart.
The only remains of the colder side of that front on Thursday will be some slightly less humid air trying to reach the Ohio River. Dew point temperatures will fall from the upper 60s to perhaps the lower 60s. (Remember: 60 degrees in the “threshold of mugginess” for the dew point) So the mugginess will not be completely gone but it will feel a little better. Highs on Thursday will once again reach the middle 80s and one or two pop up afternoon storms cannot be ruled out.
The humidity will build back on Friday and temperatures will increase slightly as well. Because of this extra fuel for storms, rain chances will increase slightly. However, any storms should remain in a pop up fashion.
An upper level disturbance will pull a stronger cold front into the Ohio Valley this weekend bringing a good bet for thunderstorms. At this point the wettest period looks to be Saturday afternoon and evening. The front *may* push enough south on Sunday to dry us out. For now, scattered storm chances remain in the forecast primarily for areas south of the Ohio River.