An airmass more akin to late June than late May will be over the region through Thursday. Warm and increasingly more humid air will be acted on a trough of low pressure advancing toward the region from the Great Lakes. Showers and thunderstorms are forecast to develop this afternoon, and some of the storms may be strong to locally severe with main threats being strong winds, hail, and torrential rainfall. Due to the parched soil conditions, heavy rainfall may not be completely absorbed by the ground and rapid runoff may result in some flash flooding concerns across the region.
Thursday a cold front will be approaching the region with another chance for showers and thunderstorms increasing during the afternoon. Heavy rain looks to be possible once again in any storm, though abundant cloud cover may limit sunshine in the pre-frontal environment over the region, thus somewhat mitigating, though not eliminating, severe weather risks.
High pressure builds in to close out the work week with fair weather and less humid conditions. We continue to monitor a cold frontal approach for late Saturday night into Sunday, with the threat of showers and storms during this time.
Temperatures will be above normal, with precipitation above normal through the entire period. A much needed rainfall for portions of the region that are classified as being in a minor drought.
…Below is the official forecast for the Capital Region and vicinity…
Today: Intervals of clouds and sunshine. Warm and humid with showers and thunderstorms developing this afternoon. Some of the storms may produce strong winds, hail, and torrential rainfall. High in the upper 80’s. South winds 5 to 15 MPH, with higher gusts possible in the vicinity of any thunderstorm. Chance of rain is 80 percent.
Tonight: A chance of showers and thunderstorms in the evening. Otherwise, variably cloudy and muggy with areas of patchy fog forming. Low in the upper 60’s. South winds 5 to 10 MPH, becoming light overnight. Chance of rain 40 percent.
Thursday: Partly sunny and humid with showers and thunderstorms possible during the afternoon. High 80 to 85. South winds 5 to 15 MPH during the morning, shifting west during the afternoon. Chance of rain is 40 percent.
Thursday Night: Mostly clear. Low near 60. Northwest winds 5 to 10 MPH.
Friday: Mostly sunny and less humid. High in the mid 80’s. Variable winds 5 to 10 MPH.
Saturday: Mostly sunny with a 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms overnight. High near 80 and low near 55.
Sunday: Mostly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms during the morning. High near 75 and low near 50.
Monday: Mostly sunny. High near 75 and low near 50.
Tuesday: Mostly sunny. High near 75 and low near 50.