The latest Quinnipiac University National poll released Wednesday morning clearly shows that the “Summer of Trump” has come to an abrupt end. At one point, Donald Trump had been leading every single major poll for nearly 100 days. The reason is not only that Trump is slipping and not only because Dr. Ben Carson has been surging, but because Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida and Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas are showing real signs of life. The Quinnipiac poll was taken about one year before Election Day 2016. Dr. Carson is virtually tied with Donald Trump as strong front-runners for the Republican nomination, and Carson is the only GOP candidate that tops former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton 50 – 40 percent in the final face-off.
In the poll, Trump gets 24 percent of Republican votes, with Carson at 23 percent, Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida at 14 percent, Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas at 13 percent, and former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush at 4 percent, the independent Quinnipiac University Poll finds. No other candidate tops 3 percent, with 9 percent undecided, and 63 percent who might change their mind, which is a big sign that this race is fluid.
Republicans say that 25 percent of voters “would definitely not support” Trump, with 23 percent who would definitely not back Bush.
In response to Dr. Carson’s lead in the polls, Trump is attempting to establish a narrative that Carson doesn’t have the experience to be president. Or the temperament to be president.
“It’s not his thing. He doesn’t have the temperament for it,” the New York real estate mogul told ABC News’ George Stephanopoulos on “Good Morning America.” “I think Ben just doesn’t have the experience.”
Trump is also concerned about Rubio and his movement in the polls. Rubio is an establishment alternative to Jeb Bush. “I’m not a fan. I think he’s overrated,” Trump said, adding that Russian President Vladimir Putin “would eat him alive.”
In a Democratic poll, Hillary Clinton gets 53 percent of Democrats, with 35 percent for Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont, with 9 percent undecided and 44 percent who might change their mind. In a sign that Clinton is the presumptive nominee, only 8 percent of Democrats say they “would definitely not support” Clinton.
“Is there a doctor in the house? There certainly is and at the moment Dr. Ben Carson is delivering a troubling diagnosis to Secretary Hillary Clinton,” said Tim Malloy, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll. “With the election one year away, Ben Carson has surgically cut away all but one GOP opponent and taken a scalpel to Hillary Clinton’s lead. But a year is an eternity in presidential campaigns and this race already has left some former front-runners on life support. Clinton gets crushed on character issues, pounded by Carson and closely challenged by Sen. Ted Cruz, Donald Trump and Sen. Marco Rubio.”
Clinton’s traditional lead among women evaporates as American voters pick Carson over the Democrat 50 – 40 percent. Women go 45 percent for Carson and 44 percent for Clinton, while men back the Republican 55 – 35 percent. In other matchups with GOP contenders:
- Clinton gets 46 percent to Trump’s 43 percent;
- Rubio tops Clinton 46 – 41 percent;
- Cruz gets 46 percent to Clinton’s 43 percent;
- New Jersey Gov. Christopher Christie tops Clinton 46 – 41 percent.
Sanders doesn’t do much better against Republicans:
- Losing to Carson 51 – 39 percent;
- Getting 46 percent to Trump’s 44 percent;
- Trailing Rubio 47 – 41 percent;
- Getting 44 percent to Cruz’s 45 percent;
- Getting 42 percent to Christie’s 45 percent.
Bush has the worst net favorability rating of any candidate, a negative 25 – 58 percent, while Trump gets a negative 37 – 56 percent and Clinton gets a negative 42 – 52 percent. Other favorability ratings are:
- 49 – 25 percent for Carson;
- 39 – 36 percent for Sanders;
- 39 – 25 percent for Rubio;
- 35 – 32 percent for Cruz.
From October 29 – November 2, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,144 registered voters nationwide with a margin of error of +/- 2.9 percentage points.