Forecast discussion: Providence officially had a heat wave this summer, as Tuesday’s high temperature reached 90 degrees. This is the first heat wave in Rhode Island since two years ago. We will remain warm and humid into the middle of the week, before cooler air and some unstable air remains over the Ocean State into early next week.
Right now, some pop up showers and thunderstorms are developing, thanks in part to a weak disturbance at the surface. This activity will persist into the early evening, before thunderstorms weaken due to the lack of sunshine. We will remain under a mix of clouds and sunshine for the next few days. Despite winds shifting to the south-southeast tomorrow, expect high temperatures in the middle 80’s.
As we move into the weekend, we will see a better chance at seeing some more widespread precipitation. A low pressure system currently centered over the Minnesota-Iowa border will move towards the east. The cold front will help trigger scattered showers, isolated areas of rain, and isolated thunderstorms. This activity will stay through the day, as a weak disturbance hangs to the east of the cold front. The computer models are also seeing what could be the remnants of Tropical Depression #4. More details on this after the forecast.
So, the remnants of the low are forecast to move off to the northeast by Saturday evening. A weak high pressure ridge will provide us with partly sunny skies into the start of the new week. A weak cold front may bring us the chance for some more showers by Tuesday afternoon. The upper level ridge that has been giving us this hot weather will weaken, which will help lower our temperatures at the surface. I’m expecting highs in the lower 80’s by the weekend.
Tropical Depression #4 was started at 11 a.m. Tuesday by the National Hurricane Center after being watched the last couple of days. The environment around the low became more favorable. It was centered at 10.6N 36.5W, or about 1665 miles east of the Windward Islands. Maximum sustained winds are at 35 mph, and is moving west-northwest at 13 mph. Being in the very warm waters of the Caribbean, the forecast is for the system to become Hurricane Danny sometime Thursday afternoon. By Sunday afternoon, it is forecast to reach 100 mph and be several hundred miles away from St. Croix. We are still very unsure if this system will try to make landfall somewhere in the U.S. That may not be known until Tuesday, at the earliest.
72 hour forecast:
Tonight: Passing showers/thunderstorms end by midnight. Partial clearing expected for the rest of the overnight. Patchy fog is possible, with drizzle along the south coast. We will see a low of 70.
Wednesday: Partly sunny and still humid. We will see a high of 86 with south-southeast winds of 9-12 mph.
McCoy Stadium Forecast (7:05 p.m. vs. Syracuse): Mostly cloudy, 79.
Wednesday night: Cloudy with the slight risk of a shower. We will see a low of 68. Winds will come from the southeast at 4-7 mph.
Thursday: Partly sunny with a high of 83.
Thursday night: Mostly cloudy with a low of 68.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with the risk for showers, periods of rain, and thunderstorms after 5 a.m. We will see a high of 81.
Friday night: Showers/rain tapers off during the overnight with a low of 67.
Saturday: Showers will be off and on through the day. Highs 80-83, lows 65-68.
Sunday: Partly sunny. Highs 81-84, lows 64-67.
Monday: Partly sunny with the risk for an afternoon shower/thunderstorm. Highs 80-83, lows 63-66.
Tuesday: Partly sunny with possible showers by the afternoon. Highs 80-83, lows 63-66.