Forecast discussion: A weak area of high pressure continues to provide dry weather for Providence as we move through Tuesday afternoon. However, the ridging is weakening, as showers and isolated thunderstorms have passed into Vermont and western Massachusetts. This activity will eventually spread into Rhode Island during the overnight hours.
The rain is from a low pressure system riding along a frontal boundary that has been pushing through Virginia back to Arkansas. This is the same boundary that brought us the heavy rain for Sunday morning. We may see periods of rain at times during Wednesday morning, there is the slight chance for strong thunderstorms once again. We may see some occasional to frequent lightning and very small hail. The biggest concern will be wind gusts from downdrafts. They could gust up to 40-45 mph. The activity will taper off by Wednesday night, as the cold front moves offshore. Skies will begin to clear as we head into Thursday morning.
The computer models are showing dry weather remaining over Southern New England right into the weekend. A strong upper level ridge will keep any storm systems from passing over Rhode Island. Unfortunately, the surface high pressure system will be weak, so we will keep more clouds than sun right into the Fourth of July. We will see bright sunshine for Sunday and Monday, so they will make for great days at the beach. There is the slight risk for some showers on Tuesday, due to increased moisture in the atmosphere and a weak upper level disturbance passing over us.
72 hour forecast:
Tonight: cloudy skies by midnight with showers developing around 3 a.m. Showers intensifies to rain by 6 a.m. We will see a low of 64. We will see patchy fog by the start of the morning commute.
Wednesday: Rain with embedded thunderstorms. Some thunderstorms may be strong, with frequent lightning and strong wind gusts, especially by mid-afternoon. We will see a high of 78 with winds from the southeast turning to the southwest at 8-11 mph.
Wednesday night: Rain tapers to showers by 7 p.m., before ending before midnight. Clearing skies expected during the overnight hours. We will see a low of 64 with west-southwest winds of 5-8 mph.
Thursday: Mostly sunny with a high of 82.
Thursday night: Partly cloudy with a low of 63.
Friday: Partly sunny with a high of 78.
Friday night: Mostly cloudy with a low of 61.
Independence Day: Partly sunny. Highs 79-82, lows 61-64.
Sunday: Mostly sunny. Highs 81-84, lows 62-65.
Monday: Mostly sunny. Highs 81-84, lows 62-65.
Tuesday: Partly sunny with the slight chance for afternoon showers. Highs 78-81, lows 64-67.