Forecast discussion: Well, the rain has gone, but the colder temperatures have not left. Although the calendar says early June, the mercury in the thermometers still thinks is early April. At T.F. Green Airport, the high for the day was only 62 degrees. It will take a few more days for warmer air to move over the region.
Winds from the east have not helped matters. This allows air off the cooler waters in the Atlantic to be pushed onto land. Winds will remain from the southeast during Thursday, before shifting to the northeast late Thursday night. Also, a low pressure system off the coast of North Carolina will move northward. This low will provide us with showers early Friday morning through the early evening. We will see a brief lull of dry weather, before a cold front now in the Northern Plains pushes through New England. This will bring another round of showers by early Saturday morning. But, the front will push through quickly, with showers ending by mid-morning. After the front moves offshore, high pressure ridging will build in, and we will see nice weather for the weekend. Temperatures will slowly rise into the lower 70’s on Saturday, and be near 70 on Sunday.
As we head into early next week, the models begin to diverge on their forecasts. Both the American and European models agree on a cold front bringing some showers and thunderstorms by Monday afternoon. However, they begin to diverge by Tuesday morning. The American model keeps precipitation over us all day on Tuesday. The European model kicks the front and the moisture out by Tuesday morning. Since the European model has been slightly more consistent over the last few model runs, I have to go with the European. However, the European is not seeing the potential for thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon, as temperatures and humidity rise into Tuesday evening. I feel a secondary system may create some instability in the atmosphere, helping to create more precipitation. A new high pressure ridge will bring partly sunny skies for next Wednesday.
72 hour forecast:
Tonight: Partly to mostly cloudy with a low of 47.
Thursday: Partly sunny with a high of 67. Winds will come from the east-southeast at 10-13 mph.
Thursday night: Mostly cloudy with an isolated shower possible by 6 a.m. We will see a low of 51. Winds will shift to the northeast at 4-7 mph at 2 a.m.
Friday: Cloudy with scattered showers until 6 p.m. with a brief lull in-between systems. We will see a high of 68.
Friday night: Showers start up once again by 4 a.m. We will see a low of 58.
Saturday: Showers end by 8 a.m. with mostly sunny skies by the early afternoon. We will see a high of 73.
Saturday night: Partly cloudy with a low of 53.
Sunday: Mostly sunny. Highs 69-72, lows 51-54.
Monday: Overcast by the early morning, with showers/thunderstorms by 1 p.m. Highs 71-74, lows 60-63.
Tuesday: Showers end by 9 a.m. Partly sunny skies expected with showers/thunderstorms possible by the mid-afternoon. Highs 76-79, lows 61-64.
Wednesday: Showers end by midnight, with partly sunny skies. Highs 75-78, lows 60-63.