Forecast discussion: Depending on where you lived in Rhode Island on Monday, you received a lot of sunshine and some showers and periods of rain. Or, if you were southern Rhode Island this early morning, some strong thunderstorms and heavy rain. Places like Portsmouth received over 3 and a half inches of rain this morning. Meanwhile, T.F. Green Airport in Warwick only received less than half an inch. As we go into tonight, parts of northern Rhode Island may see a quick shower or thunderstorm, before the sun sets, and the thunderstorms dissipate.
However, a weak disturbance will help create the risk for more showers and periods of rain this evening. Some drier air aloft will help us break out into more sunshine across the state on Tuesday. However, this will also begin a run of very hot and humid weather. I am only forecasting temperatures in the upper 80’s, but some parts of northwest Rhode Island may see a heat wave by Friday. A weak high pressure ridge will keep us dry through the middle of the week, and there is a good chance for three consecutive days with 90 degree temperatures. Wednesday seems to be the hottest day of the period, with temperatures slowly creeping back down into the upper 80’s.
The next chance for more precipitation comes Thursday, when a slow moving cold front may create some late afternoon or early evening showers and thunderstorms. The front will not move offshore until Friday morning, when we return to mostly sunny skies on Friday afternoon. A weak disturbance may bring some quick moving showers and thunderstorms early Sunday morning. At this time, the American model brings another slow moving cold front through the region for Monday, giving us the risk for some pretty good rainfall. However, the European model is much drier, giving us scattered showers only for Monday. At this time, I will call for the worst case scenario, as a week of hot and humid weather will create the perfect environment for strong thunderstorms next Monday. Regardless, keep your fans and air conditioners on, as this is expected to be the hottest and most uncomfortable days of the summer.
72 hour forecast:
Tonight: Scattered showers and periods of rain possible. Otherwise, patchy fog expected and remaining humid with a low of 69.
Tuesday: Skies slowly become mostly sunny, and it remains hot and humid. We will see a high of 87. There is the slight chance for an afternoon shower/thunderstorm. Winds will come from the west-southwest at 8-11 mph.
McCoy Stadium Forecast (7:05 p.m. vs. Norfolk): Partly sunny, passing shower, 79.
Tuesday night: Partly cloudy and still humid with a low of 70. Winds will come from the west-southwest at 3-6 mph.
Wednesday: Mostly sunny, hot, and humid with a high of 92.
Wednesday night: Partly cloudy with some high and mid-level clouds arriving by sunrise. It will remain oppressive with a low of only 72.
Thursday: Partly sunny with possible late afternoon/early evening showers/thunderstorms. We will see a high of 91.
Thursday night: Scattered showers/isolated thunderstorms with a low of 73.
Friday: Isolated showers/thunderstorms until 10 a.m. with mostly sunny skies. Highs 87-90, lows 67-70.
Saturday: Mostly sunny through the day, with increasing clouds by the early evening. Highs 86-89, lows 67-70.
Sunday: Overcast with scattered showers/thunderstorms between 4 a.m. and 9 a.m. Mostly sunny skies expected by 1 p.m. Highs 86-89, lows 67-70.
Monday: Overcast skies by early morning, showers/thunderstorms by 8 a.m. Highs 87-90, lows 66-69.