Forecast discussion: A low pressure system south of Long Island Sound is now giving light to moderate rain heavy rain too all of Rhode Island, including Providence. During the overnight, we will see strong winds come from the east-southeast. In fact, a Wind Advisory is in effect for the state, which may see gusts as high as 45 mph. The advisory is in effect until noon Sunday. Also, with the strong winds and heavy rain, a High Surf Advisory is in effect for southern Rhode Island, including exposed beaches from the south, from 8 a.m. to 8 p.m. Sunday. Finally, a Flood Watch is in effect for Providence until 2 p.m. Sunday.
So, this will make for some bad weather to start Sunday, but the heaviest rain will be offshore by the afternoon. There may be some passing showers, but some areas may see some partial sunshine. The sunshine may actually help create more showers, as the upper level dynamics will still be sensitive to sunlight heating up the atmosphere. Eventually, a weak high pressure system over the Great Lakes will bring dry weather for Sunday night through Tuesday afternoon.
A new cold front will bring the threat of some showers, light rain, and a possible thunderstorm. The best chance for precipitation will be during the overnight Tuesday evening, and continue through Wednesday. The front moves offshore by midnight, allowing us to receive partly to mostly sunny skies for Thursday from a weak high pressure system. A new low will bring the threat of some showers by Friday afternoon. As we look ahead to the Fourth of July, a cold front is expected to linger and then stall over Southern New England. We may see a few showers in the morning, with a brief lull until the late afternoon. Then, showers return as people are hoping to see fireworks in the sky. At this time, I am not confident in the models after Friday. So, the forecast may be tweaked over the next few days.
72 hour forecast:
Tonight: Heavy rain and embedded thunderstorms after midnight. Winds will be strong, with some possible flooding over southern Rhode Island. We will see a low of 62.
Sunday: Rain, heavy at times, until 11a.m., before precipitation tapers off. We may see some partial sunshine by 3 p.m. We will see a high of 72 with winds shifting to the northwest at 10-13 mph.
McCoy Stadium Forecast (1:05 p.m. vs. Gwinnett): Leftover shower with partial sunshine, 71.
Sunday night: Mostly cloudy with a low of 61. Winds will come from the west-southwest at 5-8 mph.
Monday: Partly sunny with a high of 77.
Monday night: Partly cloudy with a low of 63.
Tuesday: Mostly sunny through the early afternoon, with increasing clouds by the late afternoon. We will see a high of 79.
Tuesday night: Showers/light rain with a low of 65.
Wednesday: Overcast with showers/light rain. Highs 80-83, lows 62-65.
Thursday: Showers end by midnight with partly to mostly sunny skies. Highs 77-80, lows 59-62.
Friday: Partly sunny until 9 a.m. with showers by noon. Highs 76-79, lows 63-66.
Independence Day: Showers during the morning, with a slight break in the early afternoon. Showers may return by the early evening. Highs 77-80, lows 61-64.