Forecast discussion: A strong high pressure ridge from a high heading towards Bermuda gave us delightful weather through the Memorial Day weekend. According to T.F. Green Airport, we reached a high of 82 degrees today. It did not feel that warm, as dewpoints were in the lower 30’s until the early afternoon. However, dewpoint temperatures increased about 10 degrees in one hour.
We will see more clouds on Memorial Day, and there is the slight chance for a shower along the northern part of Rhode Island. A warm front will push through Southern New England on Monday, helping to bring that extra cloud cover. I do not expect any washouts, so cookouts and outside activities can go on as scheduled. Any firework displays should remain on schedule.
After the warm front moves north, we will still in southerly flow over the next several days. This will help bring more moisture from the south into our area. We will feel the humidity increase by midweek. Also, the cold front associated with the low in the western Plains States right now will slowly push east. We will see an increase in the risk for showers and thunderstorms starting on Wednesday, and continue into Thursday afternoon. The best chance for any thunderstorms will be from the late morning to the early afternoon.
By Thursday evening, the cold front will finally move offshore, allowing for a weak high pressure system to give us partial sunshine into Saturday morning. Right now, the computer models are very different on their forecasts for the weekend. The American model continues to be the wetter model, with the risk of showers and thunderstorms by Saturday afternoon, and continues into Sunday morning. The European model is slightly drier, with possible showers, but over Northern New England. Right now, my confidence in the forecast for the next weekend is low.
72 hour forecast:
Tonight: Increasing clouds and warmer with a low of 56.
Memorial Day: Mostly cloudy with isolated showers in the northern part of the state by the early afternoon. We will see a high of 78 with south-southwest winds of 11-14 mph.
McCoy Stadium Forecast (6:15 p.m. vs. Scranton Wilkes-Barre): Cloudy, 69.
Monday night: Mostly cloudy with a low of 61. Winds will come from the south-southwest at 10-13 mph.
Tuesday: Partly sunny and slightly humid with isolated showers and isolated thunderstorms after 4 p.m. We will see a high of 80.
Tuesday night: Cloudy with a low of 63.
Wednesday: Partly sunny and humid with the slight chance for afternoon showers and thunderstorms. We will see a high of 83.
Wednesday night: Isolated to scattered showers/thunderstorms by 8 p.m. with a low of 63.
Thursday: Scattered showers/thunderstorms end by the early afternoon. Highs 80-83, lows 60-63.
Friday: Partly sunny. Highs 78-81, lows 60-63.
Saturday: Partly sunny in the morning, with cloudy skies and showers/thunderstorms by the early afternoon. Highs 79-82, lows 62-65.
Sunday: Showers end by the morning, with partly sunny skies in the afternoon. Highs 75-78, lows 58-61.