The combination of a stalling cold front, and a digging trough of low pressure in the mid and upper levels of the atmosphere, will bring periodic bouts of moderate to heavy rainfall across the Capital Region and much of upstate Eastern New York through Wednesday afternoon.
The National Weather Service has issued a Flood Watch for the region, including portions of the Adirondacks and the Catskills, through Thursday morning. Bands of heavy rain will soak the region as a cold front passes through slowly by Wednesday morning. This front will stall just to the south of the region Wednesday afternoon, as potential interaction with a tropical system over the Atlantic occurs by Thursday.
The tropical interaction may cause a secondary coastal low pressure to form in the vicinity of the southern New England or Mid Atlantic coastal areas by Thursday evening. As this low is carried north and east through the start of the weekend, additional rainfall may be possible over portions of the region, particularly from Albany and points south and east, through early Sunday morning.
Through the next 24 hours, forecast total rainfall between 2 and 4 inches is possible, with locally higher amounts in upslope areas of the region’s mountains (i.e. the Taconics, Heldebergs, Adirondacks, and Catskills). The recent dry conditions over the region will ensure that the majority of the rainfall is thirstily soaked up by the ground. However, small stream, urban, and poor drainage areas may be susceptible to enhanced flood risks. Should heavy rainfall occur over particular areas for prolonged periods, flash flooding may also be possible.
Caution is urged tonight and Wednesday. Those in flood prone areas should remain vigilant and move to higher ground at the first sign of flooding. Remember, flash flooding can occur suddenly and with little if any advanced warning. Be prepared to act quickly at the first sign of rising water levels. Motorists should avoid low water crossings, and those travelling on foot should not attempt to cross streams or flowing water that is near or above knee depth.
Stay tuned for the latest statements and warnings from the National Weather Service. A flood watch means flooding is possible, however, a flood warning means that flooding has been observed or is likely and immediate action should be taken to ensure safety.