Pacific Ocean temperatures rising three to six degrees warmer than average due to global warming have spurred a Super El Nino Watch to be issued, with anticipated historic rain-related devastation to develop, such as floods and landslides. Federal climate experts have become increasingly confident that a strong El Nino will drench drought-stricken California and northern Mexico this winter, possibly starting as soon as October, bringing with it deep concerns about human rights to health and safety, survival.
With such a powerful kick-start from global warming, this year’s El Nino event might prove record setting, the deadly type that climate scientists have predicted due to climate change. It could compete with “super El Niños” of 1982 to 1983 and 1997 into 1998, says Kevin Trenberth, a climate scientist at the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, Colo.
“As far as I can tell, it’s currently as large as it’s ever been for this time of year,” Trenberth stated.
Hundreds of deaths and hundreds of millions of dollars in damage from the 1997 El Nino made it the costliest and one of the deadliest Pacific hurricane seasons. Human safety and prevention measures need to be considered and related actions planned now. For starters, Southern California and northern Mexico residents are urged to begin stockpiling sandbags now, before supplies are depleted, according to Southern California Weather Force. It is anticipated that by the first of October, supplies will be limited.
El Niño events happen every three to five years or so. Changing wind patterns over the Pacific Ocean push a huge pool of warm seawater eastward toward the Americas. Warmth of this water shifts heat and moisture flowing around the planet. El Niño years can change storm activity, causing stronger typhoons (hurricanes) in the Pacific and quieter hurricane seasons in the Atlantic. This year’s El Niño is the first since 2010. Already, there have been four named hurricanes in the Pacific, setting records for mid-summer.
Sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the tropical Pacific have shown warming for weeks, leading to the Super El Nino, classified as having +2.0c above average temperatures in ENSO regions of the Central/Eastern Pacific at the equator. In one week, there was a jump from +1.7c (Strong El Nino) to +1.9c in the ENSO regions. This marks only +0.1c away from a Super El Nino. Seeing it this soon could either be good or bad. If trade winds kick in between now and November, El Nino would fade. It could be good if upward trends into Super El Nino Status continue, exactly as the SCWF Model curve predicts now. Some models show it hitting an unheard of +3.0c. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration predicts this El Niño has a better than 90 percent chance of lasting straight through the Northern Hemisphere winter and an approximate 80 percent chance of continuing through spring.
Mark Purdy for the Mercury News says that “the characteristic of an El Niño winter in the Bay Area is rain, rain, rain and rain. And more rain. Considering our current drought situation, that should be an excellent thing.”
People in flood prone zones are urged to stock sandbags. Demand will kick in harder during October and November when Fall/Winter/Spring El Nino kicks in.
El Nino has been responsible for tropical systems hitting the Hawaiian Islands this month and this will continue for the next couple of months. A trough after August 20th will be along the Western United States with a ridge to the east. Any tropical systems and/or hurricanes in the Eastern Pacific would be sucked northward toward California. While an individual hurricane cannot be predicted, tracks are such that systems would aim for the U.S.
El Nino has been responsible for recent wide temperature swings. Only a slightly above average temperature, however, is recorded this Summer. Around August 20, temperatures are predicted to begin rising. Temperatures are predicted to be above average across the region with widespread 100s in the valleys and scorching 115-120 for the low deserts. After the third week of August, temperatures are predicted to again plummet. Then, September will be above average in temperatures, with a number of heatwave events that would put the summer as a whole back into slight above average.
Heat and drought that has deflected storms away from California for the last 4-5 years now might not be such a problem Super El Nino predictions occur. This is because El Nino has a very strong jet stream pattern right into California. If warm water off the Pacific coast tries to deflect storms, problem areas would be less rain in Northern California and flooding disasters in Southern California. To end the drought, however, copious amounts of snow in the Central/Northern California areas would be needed.
That much rain in a Super El Nino is as devastating as the drought. Major flooding causing landslide damages could top $500 million and higher by the time El Nino ends.
National Weather Alerts We Issued Here – http://www.nationalweatherforce.com/app-section-and-email-notification-s…
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