Right now early in the 2016 presidential campaign it is all about Donald Trump, the businessman remains the frontrunner after the first Republican presidential primary debate on Fox News according to three new polls, but his lead is shrinking. Trump has been facing backlash for his post debate comments about Fox News anchor and debate moderator Megyn Kelly. The remarks have not ruined Trump’s frontrunner status, but have cut his leads in national and early primary state polls including Suffolk University poll latest Iowa poll released on Tuesday, Aug. 11, 2015, Rasmussen’s latest national poll released the same day, and Public Policy Polling Iowa poll released on Monday, Aug. 10. Although Trump leads in all polls, the rest of the field remains fluid and unsettled.
In the Suffolk University poll looking at support for the Republican candidates in the first nominating contest of Iowa Trump still leads the GOP field with 17 percent The rest of the field has also seen some differences in their positions in the poll. Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker, who previously led in Iowa, is in second place with 12 percent support. Florida Sen. Marco Rubio came in the third spot with 10 percent support. Although Trump still leads in Iowa voters saw Rubio and Carson as the winners of the first debate.
Retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson is in fourth place with 9 percent, while Texas Sen. Ted Cruz and former HP CEO Carly Fiorina tied for fifth place with 7 percent each. Former GOP frontrunner and former Florida Governor Jeb Bush sees his stock plummet even further in Iowa with only 5 percent. Fiorina is the real winner of the Iowa poll with her numbers skyrocketing from 3 percent to 10 percent. Fiorina was the winner of the undercard debate, and her performance impressed Iowa voters.
David Paleologos, the director of the Suffolk University Political Research Center remarked that although the Trump is in the lead the new poll results shows a closer and different race. Paleologos expressed, “In the absence of a debate, Trump’s lead widens because he swallows up the political oxygen. But when that oxygen is spread out more evenly in a debate, it breathes life into the other candidates, and the race gets closer.”
In the Rasmussen Reports latest national poll Trump also leads, but with much less of a margin than he did in July’s poll. Trump still has 17 percent support as he does in Iowa, but with Rasmussen he is down 9 points from the 26 percent support he had in last month’s poll. The poll also sees the rest of the GOP field shaking up their spots in the poll.
While Trump is seeing himself as the frontrunner of the Republican presidential race nationally in Iowa and also New Hampshire. Bush on the other hand has seen in his frontrunner status disappear in the last month even losing his lead in New Hampshire. In this poll, Bush ties for second place with debate winner Rubio with 10 percent each. Rubio surged in the poll doubling his support from the last poll.
Walker also saw a tumble in his poll position, losing 5 percent support and landing in third with 9 percent. Walker also ties with Fiorina, who numbers are surging in post debate polls including the first one from Public Policy Polling. The last time Fiorina only had one percent support.
The Public Policy Polling poll, the first post debate poll also saw Trump in the lead with 19 percent, the most support of the three post debate polls. Walker and Carson tied for second place with 12 percent support. Bush came in third with 11 percent. While Fiorina first saw her poll rise to fourth place and 10 percent support, Cruz rounded out the top five with 9 percent.
Historically, Trump’s early lead on the GOP field does not mean that he would win the nomination. In the past, candidates holding frontrunner status at this early point of the race have stumbled. So far, Trump has earned former President Ronald Reagan’s (1981-89) label as teflon, becoming this election’s “Teflon Don” even after his many controversial remarks including those during and after the first GOP primary debate. It remains to be seen if Trump will really be teflon, and survive as the frontrunner where in the past other early frontrunners have failed.