Today, July 30, 2015, Quinnipiac University came out with their latest poll on the Republican Party candidates seeking the party’s presidential nomination and Donald Trump continues to dominate the field. Although the poll failed to include Libertarian Party candidates or the full slate of Republican Party and Democratic Party candidates, it offered a good indication that Trump is truly “in it to win it”. Trump had a solid 20 percent of the vote total from Republicans and Republican-leaning Americans, mostly due to the heavy media coverage he has been receiving. It is worth noting that there is a direct correlation to how much coverage a candidate receives and how well they do in the polls and on election day.
Trump’s closest rival continues to be Governor Scott Walker who came in at 13 percent while 12 percent of respondents were undecided at this time. Jeb Bush garnered 10 percent of the vote total. There was a tie for fourth place of six percent by Ben Carson, Rand Paul, Marco Rubio and Mike Huckabee.
Other interesting information gleaned from the poll found that the economy and jobs were the most important issues to the respondents and it is a statistical dead heat for who dominates the U.S. House in 2016. Respondents stated they are even when asked if they would vote for a Republican or Democrat to represent them in Congress. Three percent of voters would vote for someone other than the Republican or Democrat with 20 percent undecided at this point.
In Florida, Trump is at 26 percent with Jeb Bush at 20 percent, leaving Walker at 12 percent and Rubio at 10 percent. This is shocking to many in the Republican establishment as Bush and Rubio are from Florida and would normally be expected to perform better with their constituents. “I am surprised, because I said for some time that it was probably going to be Jeb or Marco for many different reasons,” said Republican Joe Scarborough of the poll on his MSNBC’s Morning Joe show this morning. Bloomberg political guru, Mark Halperin said, “In the end it may help Jeb Bush because everybody else is frozen in place while Jeb Bush has a $100 million plus in the bank. Being ahead now does not necessarily mean you’ll be the nominee.”
On the Democratic Party side, Hillary Clinton still has a large, but deteriorating lead over Bernie Sanders. Clinton had 55 percent of the Democrats and Democratic-leaning vote total, giving Sanders a rising 17 percent. Eleven percent of those respondents had not made up their mind at this point. Eleven percent of Democrats have an unfavorable opinion of Clinton while 51 percent of all respondents have an unfavorable opinion of her. Fifty-seven percent felt that Clinton was untrustworthy which is on par with a current trend on the issue. Since being honest and trustworthy are also the most important factor to voters in this poll, Clinton will need to change her current robot-like campaign to appear more genuine. In addition, she will need to resolve the email server question for which she finds herself under a criminal probe. Another female in the presidential race, Republican Carly Fiorina had 68 percent of respondents say that they haven’t heard enough about her to form an opinion about her. This is mostly the fault of the general media not giving equal coverage of the candidates. We suspect we would get similar results if the respondents were asked about the Libertarian Party candidates running for president, as the media rarely covers them.