Forecast discussion: A strong high pressure ridge from a high heading towards Bermuda gave us delightful weather through the Memorial Day weekend. According to Logan Airport, we reached a high of 83 degrees today. It did not feel that warm, as dewpoints were in the middle 30’s until the early evening. However, dewpoint temperatures have now reached the middle 40’s as of 9 p.m.
We will see more clouds on Memorial Day, and there is the slight chance for a shower for the central part of the state. A warm front will push through Southern New England on Monday, helping to bring that extra cloud cover. I do not expect any washouts, so cookouts and outside activities can go on as scheduled. Any firework displays should remain on schedule.
After the warm front moves north, we will still in southerly flow over the next several days. This will help bring more moisture from the south into our area. We will feel the humidity increase by midweek. Also, the cold front associated with the low in the western Plains States right now will slowly push east. We will see an increase in the risk for showers and thunderstorms starting on Wednesday, and continue into Thursday afternoon. The best chance for any thunderstorms will be from the late morning to the early afternoon.
By Thursday evening, the cold front will finally move offshore, allowing for a weak high pressure system to give us partial sunshine into Saturday morning. Right now, the computer models are very different on their forecasts for the weekend. The American model continues to be the wetter model, with the risk of showers and thunderstorms by Saturday afternoon, and continues into Sunday morning. The European model is slightly drier, with possible showers, but over Northern New England. Right now, my confidence in the forecast for the next weekend is low.
72 hour forecast:
Tonight: Increasing clouds and warmer with a low of 60.
Memorial Day: Mostly cloudy with isolated showers in the central part of the state by the early afternoon. We will see a high of 79 with south-southwest winds of 11-14 mph.
Monday night: Mostly cloudy with a low of 63. Winds will come from the south-southwest at 10-13 mph.
Tuesday: Partly sunny and slightly humid with isolated showers and isolated thunderstorms after 4 p.m. We will see a high of 83.
Tuesday night: Cloudy with a low of 64.
Wednesday: Partly sunny and humid with the slight chance for afternoon showers and thunderstorms. We will see a high of 83.
Wednesday night: Isolated to scattered showers/thunderstorms by 8 p.m. with a low of 65.
Thursday: Scattered showers/thunderstorms end by the early afternoon. Highs 80-83, lows 62-65.
Friday: Partly sunny. Highs 77-80, lows 61-64.
Saturday: Partly sunny in the morning, with cloudy skies and showers/thunderstorms by the early afternoon. Highs 78-81, lows 61-64.
Sunday: Showers/thunderstorms end by the morning, with partly sunny skies in the afternoon. Highs 73-76, lows 60-63.