Scientists have recently given UFO enthusiasts some food for thought when it comes to aliens. While scientists cannot say what an alien might look like if one of the many planets out there are capable of supporting life, they can estimate their size in pounds, which is extremely heavy in weight!
According to Live Science on May 18, with the thousands of planets outside of the Earth’s solar system chances of a few hosting life are fairly good. Scientist Fergus Simpson of the University of Barcelona has created a “statistical argument” that shows alien life forms would weigh about as much as a full-grown bear back on Earth. Simpson, who is a cosmologist, has estimated that aliens would weigh in the neighborhood of 660 lbs.
While Simpson does this on the drawing board, Discovery News reports that a wide-range survey of the planets beyond the solar system and into far-away galaxies has not turned up any obvious signs of advanced life forms…yet. If they do, then Simpson’s statistical theory may very well come to materialize, but until a planet with intelligent life form is found, no one will know what aliens truly look like, but Simpson believes the weight is accounted for in his statistics.
His statistics come from a model called Bayes theorem and a branch of mathematics called Bayesian statistics. According to Live Science the “purpose of such techniques is to estimate the probabilities of change depending on the information available.”
Simpson’s mathematical experiment that brought him to the 660 lb. weight for an alien have some scientist doubting his statistical assumptions. Simpson theorizes that a planet supporting alien life form would more than likely be smaller than Earth statistically, “at least most of the time,” in this equation. This would mean the population would be less than Earth’s population.
His theory shows that most cultures would support an average number of people. Fewer populations would hold “very low or very high populations. A species has better odds coming from a small planet rather than a larger one because there are more small planets than there are large planets. This mathematical probability seems to dabble with the law of averages at the same time.
Along with calculating the size of humans and animals that inhabitant the Earth, he did his calculations for other planets which show mathematically planets will have the radius of 1.4 times the Earth’s radius. Simpson focused on the different species of life on Earth and the smaller the species, the more of them there are. As an example he says that a human would more likely to run into a mosquito than they would a whale.
Taking all the things on Earth into consideration for size, along with the size of the planet, the calculations he runs shows that aliens would be bigger than humans. This is when he came up with the 660 lb. alien, which shows this statistical relationship between size and population.
If he plots this statistical equation on a curve, this would bring the average alien up in weight to the size of a really big bear or an elk at 692 lbs. According to Live Science, “It might sound contradictory for large creatures to be from smaller planets, but it isn’t: Remember that the populations from small planets, on average, would be small relative to the 7 billion humans who live on Earth.”
Simpson’s equation isn’t without critics, as a professor of theoretical biology and evolution at Aix-Marseille University in France isn’t sure about Simpson’s statistical argument. He said this is because “he is not sure if humans are a random sample of intelligent human beings.” He said that Earth dwellers could be the median of all civilizations.
Anything as large as the 660 lbs. Simpson is statistically theorizing, is likely to be in the water, according to Seth Shostak, a researcher from SETI Institute. He said it is “unlikely Simpson is exactly right,” when it comes to the weight of aliens.
The bottom line is that Simpson’s paper has gotten scientists thinking about alien life forms and what they may expect if in the future the Earth is visited. The paper should be applauded because it got the great minds thinking about extraterrestrial life, conveyed Shostak.